Difference in the federal deputy's vote share in cities with an amendment from them, comparing cities of the same size

From 2022 to 2026, compared with cities in the same state without an amendment from the deputy where they had the same share in 2022. Correlation is not causation: the data cannot separate the effect of the money from the choice of city.

Method

• Federal amendments: only the individual amendments of federal deputies (with a defined purpose and special transfers), by committed amount, in the city that received the money, budgets from 2016 to 2026 (Transparency Portal, CGU, batch of October 1, 2026).
• Votes: each federal deputy's share of the nominal votes in each city, in the 2014, 2018, 2022 and 2026 elections (TSE, with the 2026 first-round count).
• The comparison is always within the same deputy: the cities that received an amendment from them against those in the same state that did not, where they had the same starting share, of the same size.
• Cross-checks: money decided after the vote, an event study with four elections, money from colleagues of the same party and, in São Paulo, amendments already paid or not yet paid. A second analysis, done to try to break the calculations (with the help of artificial intelligence), redid everything.
• Correlation is not causation. The calculation is aggregate and says nothing about any particular deputy or city.

Sources

• Legislative budget amendments, Transparency Portal (CGU)
• State budget amendments, Government of the State of São Paulo
• 2014 to 2026 election results, TSE

Radar do Voto gathers and organizes public data. If there is any discrepancy, the original source prevails.

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